April 23, 2020
“If you don’t invest in risk management, it doesn’t matter what business you’re in, it’s a risky business.” - Gary Cohn
We have written before about the risks to passive investors when indexes become very concentrated. As that article points out, the lack of diversification causes pain when the largest constituents in the index fall back to earth. The following is my imagined conversation that may have happened in a lot of consulting shops over the past decade.Analyst 1: “Ugh, most of our active large cap growth managers are getting crushed by the index. Again.”
Analyst 2: “Want me to find you a manager with more than 30% of its portfolio in four holdings? How would our investment committee or clients like that?”
Analyst 1: “Right. I almost forgot that Microsoft was nearly 10% of the Russell 1000 Growth, Apple is 8%, Amazon is close to 6%, and Alphabet (Google) is over 5%.1”
Analyst 2: “Yep. The FAAMGs2 strike again.”
The Russell 1000 Growth Index has been a juggernaut, performing in the top 15th percentile against active managers in the space over the past decade[3]. During this time, the FAAMGs have become an ever-larger part of the index as their market dominance has increased.
When looking at a portfolio (or treating an index as a portfolio), there are various measures of concentration risk. One such measure is Issue Diversification which measures how many stocks make up 50% of a portfolio. In the chart below, you can see that the largest 52 stocks compose 50% of the Russell 1000 Value Index whereas only 24 stocks account for half of the weighting of the Russell 1000 Growth Index.
Noticeably to us, the Value Index has been much more stable in terms of diversification whereas the Growth Index has had larger swings and is currently approaching 30-year lows by this measure. What this says to us is that there may be risks that investors in passive products are taking that they may not be aware of. As a matter of fact, the last time the index was so concentrated was during the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s. In 2000, during the initial phase of the market meltdown, the index underperformed 82% of active managers4.
We are not suggesting that these large tech companies are facing imminent doom. In fact, Microsoft and Amazon have shown their durability during the COVID-19 shutdown. What we are saying is that they do have lofty expectations and potential anti-trust issues staring at them. Investors need to understand that they may not be as diversified as they think they are.
Stay safe and healthy. Please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions or comments. We look forward to seeing you all soon!
1 As of 04/20/2020, Frank Russell
2 Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Alphabet (nee Google)
3 Through 12/31/2019 compared to the Callan Associates, Inc. Large Cap Growth Mutual Fund Universe
4 Ibid
Kevin is Cornerstone’s Chief Investment Officer and is involved with the firm’s Investment Policy and Strategic Planning committees. Kevin joined the company in 2000 after graduating from Lehigh University with a B.S. and M.S. in Economics and earned his CFA charter in 2005. Kevin supports many charitable causes and has established a donor advised fund to propagate his philanthropic interests. Kevin lives in Bethlehem with his cats Zola and Charlyne, enjoys woodworking, gardening, reading and travel. Kevin is the proud uncle to many nieces and nephews and loves spending time with and spoiling them.
Disclaimer Notice
This material is prepared by Cornerstone Advisors Asset Management, LLC (“Cornerstone”) and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the published date indicated on the article and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cornerstone to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cornerstone, its officers, employees or agents. This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
Any accounting or tax advice contained in this communication is not intended as a thorough, in-depth analysis of specific issues, nor a substitute for a formal opinion, nor is it sufficient to avoid tax-related penalties.
The information is provided solely for informational purposes and therefore should not be considered an offer to buy or sell a security. Except as otherwise required by law, Cornerstone shall not be responsible for any trading decisions or damages or other losses resulting from this information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. Please read any prospectus carefully before investing.
This material is prepared by Cornerstone Advisors Asset Management, LLC (“Cornerstone”) and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the published date indicated on the article and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cornerstone to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cornerstone, its officers, employees or agents. This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.
Any accounting or tax advice contained in this communication is not intended as a thorough, in-depth analysis of specific issues, nor a substitute for a formal opinion, nor is it sufficient to avoid tax-related penalties.
The information is provided solely for informational purposes and therefore should not be considered an offer to buy or sell a security. Except as otherwise required by law, Cornerstone shall not be responsible for any trading decisions or damages or other losses resulting from this information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. Please read any prospectus carefully before investing.
